Web Desk–The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma) is raising serious questions about the government’s new power plan. Officials want to boost Pakistan’s electricity generation capacity by 50%—taking it to 64,000 megawatts between 2025 and 2035. But Aptma says this target is “unrealistic” and would require about $50 billion in investment, locking the country into more expensive electricity.
Issuing the detailed response to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra), Aptma said the demand forecasts used in the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP 2025-35) are not reliable.
The association argued that the plan relies too heavily on population and GDP growth assumptions while ignoring real-world shifts in the power sector.
Aptma criticized the forecasting method, saying it assumes grid electricity demand will grow in line with the economy and population.
But it ignores the rise of alternatives such as captive power, rooftop solar, and gas-fired boilers. By leaving out these factors, Aptma says the plan exaggerates how much grid power Pakistan will actually need.
The Cost of Overbuilding
According to Aptma, overestimating demand could lead to building too many power plants. This would create stranded assets—plants that sit idle—and force the government to make huge “capacity payments” to power producers even when the electricity isn’t used.
The association warned that this cycle will push tariffs even higher. In fact, capacity payments have already shot up from Rs2 per unit a decade ago to Rs17.06 per unit today, adding up to more than Rs6 trillion. That’s even more than Pakistan’s total fuel costs over the same period.
“This upward bias in demand encourages excessive generation additions, which in turn produce inflated capacity payments and greater financial stress,” Aptma said.
Demand Is Falling, Not Rising
Aptma also pointed to worrying demand trends. Industrial power use fell by about 4% in fiscal year 2025, while farm electricity consumption dropped by more than one-third as farmers switched to diesel and solar.
Despite this, IGCEP still projects nearly 20,000 megawatts of new capacity in the coming decade.
The association warned that this mismatch between supply and demand could leave the country with too much capacity, higher costs, and more circular debt.
A Call for Smarter Planning
Aptma said affordability must be at the heart of future energy planning. New generation projects, it argued, should only move forward once capacity payments fall to below Rs5 per unit.
The group urged the government to adopt a more disciplined and transparent approach—one that reflects ground realities, avoids financial stress, and protects the competitiveness of Pakistan’s industries.
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