By Qudsia Bano
Pakistan crude oil production is at a critical point. Over the past decade, the country’s crude oil output has fallen by nearly a quarter, and at the current pace, remaining reserves could last less than ten years.
Small gains gave a brief lift. In the fiscal year 2023-24, Pakistan’s crude output rose by just 2 percent over the previous year. This increase came from a few new discoveries and better recovery from older oil fields, but overall production remains limited because exploration is weak and investment in the sector is low.
Pakistan’s Oil Reserves by Province
New numbers give a clearer picture. According to the Pakistan Energy Market Review 2025 by Renewables First, total proved and probable oil reserves, or 2P reserves, reached 1,304 million barrels by the end of FY24.
That’s a 6 percent increase from 1,229 million barrels the year before. The rise came mainly from new exploration that slightly expanded reserves in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Sindh still leads, holding 44 percent of the total reserves, followed by Punjab at 35 percent and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa at 16 percent.
Reserves Depleting Fast
Yet the country is using up its reserves fast. By June 2024, cumulative production had already reached 81 percent of total 2P reserves, showing that many mature fields are running low.
The reserves-to-production ratio, which measures how long reserves will last, improved only slightly to 9.4 years from 7.6 years. That means, without major new discoveries, Pakistan’s oil could run out within a decade.
Production Numbers and Long-Term Decline
Production numbers tell the story. During FY24, daily crude output averaged 70,000 to 71,000 barrels, equal to about 3.5 million tonnes of oil equivalent. While slightly better than the previous year, these figures are far below the 94,000 barrels per day recorded in FY15.
Long-term decline points to deeper problems in the upstream sector, including low investor confidence, limited foreign exchange, and slow regulatory approvals.
Challenges in Exploration and Investment
Challenges run deep. Aging reservoirs, especially in southern Sindh and central Punjab, have passed their peak production.
Foreign oil companies are scaling back because of licensing delays, security worries, and low financial incentives. Limited exploration and natural field depletion have prevented any major recovery in output.
Imports, Refineries, and Energy Security
Imports are slowly easing pressure. Crude oil imports dropped for the second year in a row, reflecting lower refinery demand and falling consumption.
Pakistan imported 8.5 Mtoe of crude in FY24, down from 11.7 Mtoe in FY22, a 24 percent drop over two years. Petroleum product imports also fell 18 percent to 7.1 Mtoe. These reductions helped the country’s external account, but mostly because the economy is slower, not because domestic production is meeting demand.
Refineries had a small boost. Throughput rose 11 percent in FY24, processing 12 Mtoe of crude oil. Of this, 71 percent came from imports, while 29 percent was local. Diesel, furnace oil, and motor spirit made up 85 percent of output, showing that transport fuel still dominates demand. Efforts to diversify downstream products remain limited.
But the sector faces stress. Outdated technology, tight margins, and little investment make refineries fragile. Policymakers have talked about reforms and new projects, like deep conversion units, but few have moved forward.
The small rise in production cannot offset long-term declines, putting Pakistan’s energy security at risk and keeping the country dependent on imported oil.
External shocks loom large. Falling reserves and reliance on imports leave the economy vulnerable to price swings and currency shifts. Domestic production decline reduces chances for energy self-sufficiency and strains the balance of payments.
Renewables First says stronger exploration incentives, clearer policies, and fair licensing are vital to attract investment and revive the oil sector.
To sum up, Pakistan’s oil production is at a crossroads. Without new discoveries and major efficiency improvements, the country will continue to rely on imports. The slight gains of FY24 are only a short-term stabilization.
Long-term risks remain high, with mature fields shrinking, exploration lagging, and investment slow. Reversing this decline will need urgent reforms, modern technology, and a consistent policy to bring global partners back into the country’s oil industry.
Author Profile
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Qudsia Bano is a financial correspondent focused on Pakistan's fiscal health.
Her reporting, driven by SBP data, tracks the country's vital foreign exchange reserves. Bano’s work highlights the central bank's success in stabilizing reserves near the $19-20 billion range, underscoring its crucial effort to maintain exchange rate stability.
