By Moaaz Manzoor
A small but steady comeback is taking shape in Pakistan’s trade numbers — and it’s giving cautious hope to economists watching for signs of recovery.
Pakistan’s external trade showed encouraging progress in September 2025, as both exports and imports recorded month-to-month growth. The rise points to improving global demand and a gradual recovery in domestic industries.
Export Growth Offers Encouragement
According to the Ministry of Commerce, exports in September reached $2.5 billion, up from $2.4 billion in August — a 3.48 percent increase. In rupee terms, exports climbed 3.04 percent to Rs703 billion, compared to Rs683 billion a month earlier.
Still, not everything was upbeat. Compared to the same month last year, exports fell 11.85 percent from $2.8 billion in September 2024.
Quarterly Trade Figures Show Mixed Trends
Quarterly data tells a more balanced story. Exports for July to September 2025-26 were valued at $7.6 billion, slightly lower — by 3.88 percent — than $7.9 billion recorded in the same period a year ago. In rupees, quarterly exports totaled Rs2,149 billion, down 2.32 percent from Rs2,200 billion in the previous fiscal year.
Import Growth Signals Industrial Recovery
Imports, on the other hand, painted a stronger picture. They showed a significant rise, mainly due to higher energy and machinery inflows supporting Pakistan’s ongoing industrial and infrastructure recovery.
Total imports in September 2025 reached $5.9 billion, marking an 11.63 percent jump from $5.3 billion in August. In rupees, imports rose 11.33 percent, climbing from Rs1,495 billion to Rs1,664 billion.
Compared with September 2024, imports went up 15.16 percent in dollars and 16.49 percent in rupees, a sign of renewed demand and easing supply chain issues. Cumulatively, imports for the first quarter of FY26 stood at $17 billion, showing a 13.88 percent increase from $14.9 billion last year. In rupees, imports grew 15.57 percent year-on-year, from Rs4,169 billion to Rs4,818 billion.
Trade Deficit Widens but Remains Manageable
Naturally, the rising imports widened the trade deficit, though officials called it manageable. The deficit expanded to $3.4 billion in September 2025, compared to $2.8 billion in August — an 18.49 percent month-on-month increase. In rupees, the gap widened 18.30 percent, reaching Rs960 billion, up from Rs812 billion. Year-on-year, the deficit grew 48.58 percent in dollar terms and 50.16 percent in rupees.
For the July-September quarter, the trade deficit stood at $9.4 billion, a 33.80 percent rise from $7.0 billion in the same quarter last year.
In rupees, the figure reached Rs2,668 billion, compared to Rs1,968 billion in July-September 2024-25 — a 35.57 percent increase.
Experts Highlight Signs of Economic Resilience
Officials told this reporter that the recent export recovery, despite global challenges and a steady exchange rate, shows resilience in Pakistan’s external sector. They added that import growth, especially in petroleum and machinery, suggests improving domestic demand and early signs of an industrial rebound.
“The narrowing quarterly export contraction and higher import volumes suggest normalisation in trade flows and improving industrial sentiment,” said one official.
Even with a wider deficit, the higher trade activity points to renewed momentum in Pakistan’s external sector.
The export-to-import ratio, which stood at 42.3 percent in September 2025 compared to 45.7 percent in August, still shows room for growth. But it also signals that exports continue to hold steady as the fiscal year progresses.
Author Profile
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Moaaz Manzoor is a business correspondent who meticulously tracks Pakistan’s crucial but neglected natural resource industries.
He specializes in exposing inefficiencies and charting the course of modernization, highlighting how efforts to mechanize mining have dramatically cut marble and granite wastage, driving a recovery and attracting vital investment.
