Punjab Sugar Prices Drop Ahead of Crushing Season

By Muhammad Luqman

A sharp drop in sugar prices before the crushing season has created an unexpected twist for traders across Punjab, as falling ex-mill rates begin pushing the market in a new direction and reflecting the wider movement in Punjab sugar prices.

Falling Sugar Market Rates in Punjab

To start with, Hafiz Zeeshan Ghafoori, a wholesale dealer, said the ex-mill rate that once stood at Rs 18,000 per 100 kg has now slipped to between Rs 16,500 and Rs 17,000.

He explained that a 50-kg bag previously selling at Rs 9,100 is now going for Rs 8,700, offering some relief at the wholesale level.

High Retail Sugar Prices Across Punjab

At the same time, he pointed out that retail prices in Lahore and other cities remain stubbornly high, still close to Rs 200 per kg, even though the official price for the month is Rs 179.

Moving forward, Ghafoori said the inflated retail rates are mostly the result of market forces, which have taken advantage of what he described as a relaxed approach from district administrations and price-control officials.

Wholesale Traders Predict Further Decline

As the weeks progress, wholesale traders at Akbari Mandi believe prices may fall even more, with expectations that sugar could reach Rs 150 per kg by late December.

Along the same lines, Muhammad Amjad, President of the Sugar Dealers Association at Akbari Mandi, told this reporter that ex-mill prices are slipping day after day.

He said 50-kg bags are dropping by roughly Rs 50 daily, driven by expanded cultivation and higher sugarcane yields this season.

Punjab Sugarcane Output and Expanded Cultivation

On the production front, Punjab—Pakistan’s leading sugarcane-growing province—expanded its cultivation area by 4.8%, reaching 856,000 hectares for the 2025–26 season.

As a result, total sugarcane production rose by 2.7%, climbing to 61.73 million tons from last year’s 60.11 million tons.

Looking ahead, Amjad noted that although prices are unlikely to return to Rs 100 per kg, as seen a few years back, they are expected to settle around Rs 150 by the time the crushing season ends in March next year.

Sugar Mills Operations, Recovery Issues, and Government Pressure

On another front, sugar millers say that with cane pricing deregulated this year, sugarcane is being bought at around Rs 400 per 40 kg.

They also report that sugar recovery remains below 9% in much of Punjab, which continues to squeeze profits.

In response, mill owner Muhammad Waheed Chaudhary said sugarcane crushing may only become financially workable by late December, once recovery levels finally move above the 9% mark.

As the season unfolds, he said most millers began crushing by mid-November to comply with the Punjab Sugar Factories Control (Amendment) Act, 2021.

This was done to avoid heavy fines and penalties, even as some millers argued that the early start would hurt recovery levels.

Despite resistance from the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA), which disagreed with the November 15 start date, all mills eventually began operating on or shortly after the deadline under government pressure.

Industry experts also remained split on whether the early start was the right move, especially with concerns over low recovery rates.

Finally, the Cane Commissioner’s Office has issued notices to several mills for starting operations after the November 15 cutoff. A PSMA spokesman said the dispute is expected to be settled through an amicable arrangement soon.

Author Profile

Muhammad Luqman: Muhammad Luqman is an experienced journalist specializing in agriculture, livestock, and rural development in Pakistan.

He writes insightful reports on government initiatives, economic potential, and policy impacts in the agriculture and livestock sectors, highlighting how local programs shape livelihoods and boost national and international markets.