By Azeem Ahmed
Pakistan is preparing to sow its key Rabi crops in Pakistan for the 2025-26 season under a mix of good and challenging weather signs. According to an official document available with this reporter, the country currently has strong soil moisture, but fears are growing about lower rainfall in the coming months.
Monsoon Rains Set Positive Base for Rabi Planting
To start with, this year’s monsoon rains have left the ground in better condition than usual. The document on water availability shows that above-average monsoon rainfall has created “reasonable soil moisture” across most regions, giving a solid foundation for planting major Rabi crops such as wheat, barley, and pulses.
Experts Warn of Below-Normal Rainfall Ahead
But trouble could be around the corner. Between October and December, experts warn that soil moisture may begin to fall because of less-than-normal rainfall, especially in the upper rainfed and hilly parts of Pakistan.
Forecasts suggest that the October to December 2025 period will bring normal to below-normal rainfall in most areas. In Punjab, rain is expected to stay near normal or slightly below it throughout the sowing season, though October might see a brief rise in precipitation.
Meanwhile, Sindh is likely to receive normal to slightly higher rainfall, offering some relief to farmers there.
In contrast, Balochistan may face normal to slightly below-normal rainfall, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir are expected to stay mostly dry during the same period.
Irrigation Water Availability Offers Some Relief
Despite these mixed signals, the situation is not entirely grim. The document notes that even with a possible dry spell in northern and hilly areas, enough irrigation water should be available for the season. However, it warns that farmers in the southern regions must use water carefully to avoid shortages.
Adding another challenge, temperatures are projected to stay above normal during October to December, particularly in upper KP, GB, and AJK. The central and southern plains of Punjab, Sindh, and parts of Balochistan may experience near-normal conditions. During September, temperatures were already slightly higher than average—about one degree Celsius more—across all provinces.
Rainfall Trends and Provincial Data Show Mixed Picture
Between July and September 2025, Pakistan received 24.5% more rainfall than the long-term average. Punjab led the way with 36% above-normal rainfall, followed by Sindh, Balochistan, KP, AJK, and GB.
For the first 23 days of September alone, rain levels across the country were 70% above normal. Sindh saw the biggest increase, followed by Punjab and Balochistan, while KP, AJK, and GB received less rain than expected.
Steady Improvement in Irrigation Releases Over the Years
Water availability has also been improving over the years. Irrigation releases to provinces rose steadily from 27.423 million-acre feet (MAF) in 2022-23 to 29.374 MAF in 2023-24, and further to 30.592 MAF in 2024-25. However, the report points out that the last three Kharif (summer crop) seasons showed major swings—65.082 MAF in 2022, a sharp drop to 43.268 MAF in 2023, and then a recovery to 61.851 MAF in 2024.
Overall, the document paints a picture of cautious optimism. Pakistan’s farmers have a strong start thanks to good soil moisture, but the coming months will test their patience and planning as rainfall patterns remain unpredictable.
Author Profile
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Azeem Ahmed is an Islamabad-based journalist specializing in agriculture, business, and economic trends.
He provides insightful analysis on market developments and policy impacts shaping Pakistan’s economy.
